Kerstin Ammann-Silvaggio

[pdf] Scary Estimators and the Tentacle Property, or the Return of Paul’s Forecasts at the 2010 World Cup
Konstantin M. Wacker, University of Göttingen

Abstract:

This paper addresses the question whether the octopus Paul is a reliable predictor for the outcome of 2010 FIFA World Cup games. We find statistically convincing evidence for this hypothesis and for the theory that Paul’s decision actually influences the results of the games.

Accordingly, we conclude that Spain is going to be World Champion with a probability of 98.4 %.